Hopes of arriving at a global consensus to tackle the serious challenge of climate change were dashed last week at L’Aquila, Italy, when the developed nations dragged their feet on arriving at concrete short term plans and a definite roadmap to reduce polluting emissions that can cause disastrous global climate change. Instead, the developed nations chose to pass the buck to the developing nations.

Close on the heels of this setback to set right the emission cuts of green house gases (GHG) that threaten to play havoc on global climate, comes the bombshell in the guise of the El Niño update that can spell disaster for Asian climes. Australia’s weather bureau has reported a spike in the El Niño weather pattern that is gaining in strength at the moment.

El Niño (literally “little boy” in Spanish) is the term used for the abnormal warming pattern in the Eastern Pacific Ocean which has the potential to dramatically change weather patterns across the Asia-Pacific region for the worse. A heightened El Niño can result in monsoon failure in Asia, cause drought in Australia and a horrendous downpour in parts of South America.

“We are warming reasonably rapidly,” said Andrew Watkins from Australia’s meteorological department. The speed with which the equatorial Pacific region warms up will determine how the monsoon is gearing up to show its presence in India. The Indian meteorological department recently forecast a ‘near normal’ monsoon but with a reduced 81% of the normal rain. According to the director of Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), Pune’s National Climate Center, D.S. Pai, if the warming spikes faster its effect may weaken the monsoon earlier and drastically reduce the predicted rainfall.

North India is already gearing up to face the impending threat of drought in most areas. The repeat of the bumper paddy crop as in 2008 in places like Punjab is clearly ruled out this year. The sowing of wheat, paddy, pulses and sugarcane has been delayed following the rains playing truant.

Changing climate and weather patterns make a global impact, no doubt. But it is inevitably the developing nations that take the hit badly.

Thilaka Ravi